Hapoel Bu'eine 2–1 Robi Shapira: Result & Stats

Hapoel Bu'eine

FT

2 – 1

Robi Shapira

11/24/2020

State Cup · 2nd RoundBuina Nujeidat Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Hapoel Bu'eine51%

×Draw28%

Robi Shapira21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hapoel Bu'eineExpected goals in this matchRobi Shapira

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

0.77

Hapoel Bu'eine

1.36

Robi Shapira

0.77

Hapoel Bu'eine creates 77% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

1.40

creates per match

0.33

1.20

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Hapoel Bu'eine

1.40

Robi Shapira

0.33

allows per match

Hapoel Bu'eine

1.20

Robi Shapira

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hapoel Bu'eine+0.00on par

Robi Shapira+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Bu'eine ↓

Robi Shapira →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Hapoel Bu'eine or draw

79%

Hapoel Bu'eine or Robi Shapira

72%

Draw or Robi Shapira

49%

Winning margin

Hapoel Bu'eine wins by 2+

25%

Robi Shapira wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Hapoel Bu'eine 1+ goals

74%

Hapoel Bu'eine 2+ goals

39%

Hapoel Bu'eine 3+ goals

16%

Robi Shapira 1+ goals

54%

Robi Shapira 2+ goals

18%

Robi Shapira 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Bu'eine (draw refunded)

71%

Robi Shapira (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Bu'eine at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Robi Shapira away — creates 0.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Bu'eine attack 1.40 + Robi Shapira defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.36

Robi Shapira attack 0.33 + Hapoel Bu'eine defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Hapoel Bu'eine scores more

51%

level

28%

Robi Shapira scores more

21%

Hapoel Bu'eine at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Hapoel Bu'eine will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff