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Hapoel Bu'eine vs Hapoel Ra'anana — State Cup 2019

Hapoel Bu'eine
Hapoel Bu'eine
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Hapoel Ra'anana
Hapoel Ra'anana
9/19/2022State CupState Cup · 6th RoundBuina Nujeidat Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Hapoel Bu'eine37%
×Draw24%
Hapoel Ra'anana39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Bu'eine
1.55
Hapoel Ra'anana
1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

creates per match

Hapoel Bu'eine
1.40
Hapoel Ra'anana
2.00

allows per match

Hapoel Bu'eine
1.20
Hapoel Ra'anana
1.71

finishing

Hapoel Bu'eine+0.00on par
Hapoel Ra'anana+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Bu'eine ↓

Hapoel Ra'anana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Hapoel Bu'eine or draw
61%
Hapoel Bu'eine or Hapoel Ra'anana
76%
Draw or Hapoel Ra'anana
63%

Winning margin

Hapoel Bu'eine wins by 2+
18%
Hapoel Ra'anana wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Hapoel Bu'eine 1+ goals
79%
Hapoel Bu'eine 2+ goals
46%
Hapoel Bu'eine 3+ goals
20%
Hapoel Ra'anana 1+ goals
80%
Hapoel Ra'anana 2+ goals
47%
Hapoel Ra'anana 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Bu'eine (draw refunded)
49%
Hapoel Ra'anana (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Bu'eine at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Hapoel Ra'anana away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Bu'eine attack 1.40 + Hapoel Ra'anana defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.55

Hapoel Ra'anana attack 2.00 + Hapoel Bu'eine defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Hapoel Bu'eine scores more
37%
level
24%
Hapoel Ra'anana scores more
39%

Hapoel Ra'anana at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Hapoel Ra'anana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

State Cup: Hapoel Bu'eine 3–1 Hapoel Ra'anana

Hapoel Bu'eine beat Hapoel Ra'anana 3-1 in State Cup on September 19, 2022.

The match was played at Buina Nujeidat Stadium in Bu'eine Nujeidat.