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Hapoel Bu'eine vs Hapoel Bnei Zalafa — State Cup 2019

Hapoel Bu'eine
Hapoel Bu'eine
FT
2 – 0
Hapoel Bnei Zalafa
Hapoel Bnei Zalafa
9/3/2021State CupState Cup · Liga Alef - 6th RoundBuina Nujeidat Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Hapoel Bu'eine31%
×Draw26%
Hapoel Bnei Zalafa43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Bu'eine
1.20
Hapoel Bnei Zalafa
1.44

Hapoel Bnei Zalafa creates 20% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

Hapoel Bu'eine
1.40
Hapoel Bnei Zalafa
1.67

allows per match

Hapoel Bu'eine
1.20
Hapoel Bnei Zalafa
1.00

finishing

Hapoel Bu'eine+0.00on par
Hapoel Bnei Zalafa+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Bu'eine ↓

Hapoel Bnei Zalafa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Hapoel Bu'eine or draw
57%
Hapoel Bu'eine or Hapoel Bnei Zalafa
74%
Draw or Hapoel Bnei Zalafa
69%

Winning margin

Hapoel Bu'eine wins by 2+
13%
Hapoel Bnei Zalafa wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Hapoel Bu'eine 1+ goals
70%
Hapoel Bu'eine 2+ goals
34%
Hapoel Bu'eine 3+ goals
12%
Hapoel Bnei Zalafa 1+ goals
76%
Hapoel Bnei Zalafa 2+ goals
42%
Hapoel Bnei Zalafa 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Bu'eine (draw refunded)
42%
Hapoel Bnei Zalafa (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Bu'eine at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Hapoel Bnei Zalafa away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Bu'eine attack 1.40 + Hapoel Bnei Zalafa defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.20

Hapoel Bnei Zalafa attack 1.67 + Hapoel Bu'eine defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Hapoel Bu'eine scores more
31%
level
26%
Hapoel Bnei Zalafa scores more
43%

Hapoel Bnei Zalafa at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Hapoel Bnei Zalafa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hapoel Bu'eine vs Hapoel Bnei Zalafa

Hapoel Bu'eine beat Hapoel Bnei Zalafa 2-0 in State Cup on September 3, 2021.

The match was played at Buina Nujeidat Stadium in Bu'eine Nujeidat.