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Hapoel Bnei Pardes vs Maccabi Umm Al Fahm — State Cup 2019

Hapoel Bnei Pardes
Hapoel Bnei Pardes
FT
1 – 2
Maccabi Umm Al Fahm
Maccabi Umm Al Fahm
8/31/2019State CupState Cup · 1st RoundUmm al-Fahm Municipal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Hapoel Bnei Pardes18%
×Draw21%
Maccabi Umm Al Fahm60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Bnei Pardes
1.00
Maccabi Umm Al Fahm
2.00

Maccabi Umm Al Fahm creates 100% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Hapoel Bnei Pardes
0.67
Maccabi Umm Al Fahm
1.67

allows per match

Hapoel Bnei Pardes
2.33
Maccabi Umm Al Fahm
1.33

finishing

Hapoel Bnei Pardes+0.00on par
Maccabi Umm Al Fahm+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Bnei Pardes ↓

Maccabi Umm Al Fahm →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–210%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Hapoel Bnei Pardes or draw
40%
Hapoel Bnei Pardes or Maccabi Umm Al Fahm
79%
Draw or Maccabi Umm Al Fahm
82%

Winning margin

Hapoel Bnei Pardes wins by 2+
6%
Maccabi Umm Al Fahm wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Hapoel Bnei Pardes 1+ goals
63%
Hapoel Bnei Pardes 2+ goals
26%
Hapoel Bnei Pardes 3+ goals
8%
Maccabi Umm Al Fahm 1+ goals
86%
Maccabi Umm Al Fahm 2+ goals
59%
Maccabi Umm Al Fahm 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Bnei Pardes (draw refunded)
23%
Maccabi Umm Al Fahm (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Bnei Pardes at home — creates 0.67, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Maccabi Umm Al Fahm away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Bnei Pardes attack 0.67 + Maccabi Umm Al Fahm defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.00

Maccabi Umm Al Fahm attack 1.67 + Hapoel Bnei Pardes defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Hapoel Bnei Pardes scores more
18%
level
21%
Maccabi Umm Al Fahm scores more
60%

Maccabi Umm Al Fahm at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Maccabi Umm Al Fahm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

State Cup: Hapoel Bnei Pardes 1–2 Maccabi Umm Al Fahm

Maccabi Umm Al Fahm beat Hapoel Bnei Pardes 2-1 in State Cup on August 31, 2019.

The match was played at Umm al-Fahm Municipal Stadium in Umm al-Fahm.