Hapoel Bnei Pardes 0–3 Ihud Bnei Baka

Hapoel Bnei Pardes

0 – 3

Ihud Bnei Baka

9/8/2023

State Cup · 1st Round (Liga Bet)Kiryat Yam Synthetic

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Hapoel Bnei Pardes30%

×Draw20%

Ihud Bnei Baka51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hapoel Bnei PardesExpected goals in this matchIhud Bnei Baka

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

2.42

Hapoel Bnei Pardes

1.83

Ihud Bnei Baka

2.42

Ihud Bnei Baka creates 32% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

0.67

creates per match

2.50

2.33

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Hapoel Bnei Pardes

0.67

Ihud Bnei Baka

2.50

allows per match

Hapoel Bnei Pardes

2.33

Ihud Bnei Baka

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hapoel Bnei Pardes+0.00on par

Ihud Bnei Baka+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Bnei Pardes ↓

Ihud Bnei Baka →

0–01%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1–03%

1–16%

1–28%

1–36%

1–44%

2–02%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–43%

3–01%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

61%39%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

Hapoel Bnei Pardes or draw

49%

Hapoel Bnei Pardes or Ihud Bnei Baka

80%

Draw or Ihud Bnei Baka

70%

Winning margin

Hapoel Bnei Pardes wins by 2+

15%

Ihud Bnei Baka wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Hapoel Bnei Pardes 1+ goals

84%

Hapoel Bnei Pardes 2+ goals

54%

Hapoel Bnei Pardes 3+ goals

28%

Ihud Bnei Baka 1+ goals

91%

Ihud Bnei Baka 2+ goals

69%

Ihud Bnei Baka 3+ goals

43%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Bnei Pardes (draw refunded)

37%

Ihud Bnei Baka (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Bnei Pardes at home — creates 0.67, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Ihud Bnei Baka away — creates 2.50, concedes 3.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Bnei Pardes attack 0.67 + Ihud Bnei Baka defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 1.83

Ihud Bnei Baka attack 2.50 + Hapoel Bnei Pardes defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 51%?"

Hapoel Bnei Pardes scores more

30%

level

20%

Ihud Bnei Baka scores more

51%

Ihud Bnei Baka at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Ihud Bnei Baka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff