Hapoel Bnei Pardes 1–2 Hapoel Rishon LeZion

Hapoel Bnei Pardes

1 – 2

Hapoel Rishon LeZion

M. Abu Ras 49'

L. Katsav 74'

D. Kadouri 55'

12/15/2020

State Cup · 3rd RoundAthos Haifa Lot 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Hapoel Bnei Pardes20%

×Draw23%

Hapoel Rishon LeZion57%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hapoel Bnei PardesExpected goals in this matchHapoel Rishon LeZion

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.96

1.79

Hapoel Bnei Pardes

0.96

Hapoel Rishon LeZion

1.79

Hapoel Rishon LeZion creates 86% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

0.67

creates per match

1.25

2.33

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Hapoel Bnei Pardes

0.67

Hapoel Rishon LeZion

1.25

allows per match

Hapoel Bnei Pardes

2.33

Hapoel Rishon LeZion

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hapoel Bnei Pardes+0.00on par

Hapoel Rishon LeZion+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Bnei Pardes ↓

Hapoel Rishon LeZion →

0–06%

0–111%

0–210%

0–36%

0–43%

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2–03%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Hapoel Bnei Pardes or draw

43%

Hapoel Bnei Pardes or Hapoel Rishon LeZion

77%

Draw or Hapoel Rishon LeZion

80%

Winning margin

Hapoel Bnei Pardes wins by 2+

Hapoel Rishon LeZion wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Hapoel Bnei Pardes 1+ goals

62%

Hapoel Bnei Pardes 2+ goals

25%

Hapoel Bnei Pardes 3+ goals

Hapoel Rishon LeZion 1+ goals

83%

Hapoel Rishon LeZion 2+ goals

53%

Hapoel Rishon LeZion 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Bnei Pardes (draw refunded)

26%

Hapoel Rishon LeZion (draw refunded)

74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Bnei Pardes at home — creates 0.67, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Hapoel Rishon LeZion away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Bnei Pardes attack 0.67 + Hapoel Rishon LeZion defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.96

Hapoel Rishon LeZion attack 1.25 + Hapoel Bnei Pardes defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 57%?"

Hapoel Bnei Pardes scores more

20%

level

23%

Hapoel Rishon LeZion scores more

57%

Hapoel Rishon LeZion at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Hapoel Rishon LeZion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

49'

M. Abu Ras

55'

D. Kadouri

74'

L. Katsav

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff