Hapoel Bnei Pardes 1–1 Hapoel Bnei Zalafa

Hapoel Bnei Pardes

AET

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Hapoel Bnei Zalafa

11/21/2020

State Cup · 1st RoundAthos Haifa Lot 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Hapoel Bnei Pardes15%

×Draw21%

Hapoel Bnei Zalafa65%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hapoel Bnei PardesExpected goals in this matchHapoel Bnei Zalafa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.83

2.00

Hapoel Bnei Pardes

0.83

Hapoel Bnei Zalafa

2.00

Hapoel Bnei Zalafa creates 141% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

0.67

creates per match

1.67

2.33

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Hapoel Bnei Pardes

0.67

Hapoel Bnei Zalafa

1.67

allows per match

Hapoel Bnei Pardes

2.33

Hapoel Bnei Zalafa

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hapoel Bnei Pardes+0.00on par

Hapoel Bnei Zalafa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Bnei Pardes ↓

Hapoel Bnei Zalafa →

0–06%

0–112%

0–212%

0–38%

0–44%

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–43%

2–02%

2–14%

2–24%

2–33%

2–41%

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Hapoel Bnei Pardes or draw

35%

Hapoel Bnei Pardes or Hapoel Bnei Zalafa

79%

Draw or Hapoel Bnei Zalafa

85%

Winning margin

Hapoel Bnei Pardes wins by 2+

Hapoel Bnei Zalafa wins by 2+

40%

Team goals

Hapoel Bnei Pardes 1+ goals

56%

Hapoel Bnei Pardes 2+ goals

20%

Hapoel Bnei Pardes 3+ goals

Hapoel Bnei Zalafa 1+ goals

86%

Hapoel Bnei Zalafa 2+ goals

59%

Hapoel Bnei Zalafa 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Bnei Pardes (draw refunded)

19%

Hapoel Bnei Zalafa (draw refunded)

81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Bnei Pardes at home — creates 0.67, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Hapoel Bnei Zalafa away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Bnei Pardes attack 0.67 + Hapoel Bnei Zalafa defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.83

Hapoel Bnei Zalafa attack 1.67 + Hapoel Bnei Pardes defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 65%?"

Hapoel Bnei Pardes scores more

15%

level

21%

Hapoel Bnei Zalafa scores more

65%

Hapoel Bnei Zalafa at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Hapoel Bnei Zalafa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff