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Hapoel Bnei Lod vs Hapoel Petah Tikva — Liga Leumit 2019

Hapoel Bnei Lod
Hapoel Bnei Lod
CANC
17:00
Hapoel Petah Tikva
Hapoel Petah Tikva
7/13/2020Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Relegation Round - 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Hapoel Bnei Lod23%
×Draw28%
Hapoel Petah Tikva49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Bnei Lod
0.82
Hapoel Petah Tikva
1.34

Hapoel Petah Tikva creates 63% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 60 away

creates per match

Hapoel Bnei Lod
0.83
Hapoel Petah Tikva
1.18

allows per match

Hapoel Bnei Lod
1.50
Hapoel Petah Tikva
0.82

finishing

Hapoel Bnei Lod+0.00on par
Hapoel Petah Tikva+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Bnei Lod ↓

Hapoel Petah Tikva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–115%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Hapoel Bnei Lod or draw
51%
Hapoel Bnei Lod or Hapoel Petah Tikva
72%
Draw or Hapoel Petah Tikva
77%

Winning margin

Hapoel Bnei Lod wins by 2+
7%
Hapoel Petah Tikva wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Hapoel Bnei Lod 1+ goals
56%
Hapoel Bnei Lod 2+ goals
20%
Hapoel Bnei Lod 3+ goals
5%
Hapoel Petah Tikva 1+ goals
74%
Hapoel Petah Tikva 2+ goals
39%
Hapoel Petah Tikva 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Bnei Lod (draw refunded)
32%
Hapoel Petah Tikva (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Bnei Lod at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.50 · 18 matches

Hapoel Petah Tikva away — creates 1.18, concedes 0.82 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Bnei Lod attack 0.83 + Hapoel Petah Tikva defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.82

Hapoel Petah Tikva attack 1.18 + Hapoel Bnei Lod defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Hapoel Bnei Lod scores more
23%
level
28%
Hapoel Petah Tikva scores more
49%

Hapoel Petah Tikva at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Hapoel Petah Tikva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Hapoel Bnei Lod face Hapoel Petah Tikva (Liga Leumit)

Liga Leumit returns with Hapoel Bnei Lod hosting Hapoel Petah Tikva. Match starts July 13, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.