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Hapoel Bnei Ashdod vs Maccabi Kiryat Gat — State Cup 2019

Hapoel Bnei Ashdod
Hapoel Bnei Ashdod
FT
1 – 2
Maccabi Kiryat Gat
Maccabi Kiryat Gat
3/18/2024State CupState Cup · 4th Round (Liga Bet)Ashdod Senti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Hapoel Bnei Ashdod33%
×Draw22%
Maccabi Kiryat Gat45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Bnei Ashdod
1.60
Maccabi Kiryat Gat
1.90

Maccabi Kiryat Gat creates 19% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

Hapoel Bnei Ashdod
2.00
Maccabi Kiryat Gat
2.80

allows per match

Hapoel Bnei Ashdod
1.00
Maccabi Kiryat Gat
1.20

finishing

Hapoel Bnei Ashdod+0.00on par
Maccabi Kiryat Gat+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Bnei Ashdod ↓

Maccabi Kiryat Gat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Hapoel Bnei Ashdod or draw
55%
Hapoel Bnei Ashdod or Maccabi Kiryat Gat
78%
Draw or Maccabi Kiryat Gat
67%

Winning margin

Hapoel Bnei Ashdod wins by 2+
16%
Maccabi Kiryat Gat wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Hapoel Bnei Ashdod 1+ goals
80%
Hapoel Bnei Ashdod 2+ goals
47%
Hapoel Bnei Ashdod 3+ goals
22%
Maccabi Kiryat Gat 1+ goals
85%
Maccabi Kiryat Gat 2+ goals
56%
Maccabi Kiryat Gat 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Bnei Ashdod (draw refunded)
42%
Maccabi Kiryat Gat (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Bnei Ashdod at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Maccabi Kiryat Gat away — creates 2.80, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Bnei Ashdod attack 2.00 + Maccabi Kiryat Gat defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.60

Maccabi Kiryat Gat attack 2.80 + Hapoel Bnei Ashdod defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Hapoel Bnei Ashdod scores more
33%
level
22%
Maccabi Kiryat Gat scores more
45%

Maccabi Kiryat Gat at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Maccabi Kiryat Gat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hapoel Bnei Ashdod vs Maccabi Kiryat Gat

Maccabi Kiryat Gat beat Hapoel Bnei Ashdod 2-1 in State Cup on March 18, 2024.

The match was played at Ashdod Senti in Ashdod.