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Hapoel Bnei Ashdod vs FC Jerusalem — State Cup 2019

Hapoel Bnei Ashdod
Hapoel Bnei Ashdod
FT
3 – 1
FC Jerusalem
FC Jerusalem
9/13/2023State CupState Cup · 2nd Round (Liga Bet)Ashdod Senti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Hapoel Bnei Ashdod72%
×Draw18%
FC Jerusalem10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Bnei Ashdod
2.17
FC Jerusalem
0.67

Hapoel Bnei Ashdod creates 224% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Hapoel Bnei Ashdod
2.00
FC Jerusalem
0.33

allows per match

Hapoel Bnei Ashdod
1.00
FC Jerusalem
2.33

finishing

Hapoel Bnei Ashdod+0.00on par
FC Jerusalem+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Bnei Ashdod ↓

FC Jerusalem →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Hapoel Bnei Ashdod or draw
90%
Hapoel Bnei Ashdod or FC Jerusalem
82%
Draw or FC Jerusalem
28%

Winning margin

Hapoel Bnei Ashdod wins by 2+
47%
FC Jerusalem wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Hapoel Bnei Ashdod 1+ goals
89%
Hapoel Bnei Ashdod 2+ goals
64%
Hapoel Bnei Ashdod 3+ goals
36%
FC Jerusalem 1+ goals
49%
FC Jerusalem 2+ goals
15%
FC Jerusalem 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Bnei Ashdod (draw refunded)
88%
FC Jerusalem (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Bnei Ashdod at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

FC Jerusalem away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Bnei Ashdod attack 2.00 + FC Jerusalem defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.17

FC Jerusalem attack 0.33 + Hapoel Bnei Ashdod defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Hapoel Bnei Ashdod scores more
72%
level
18%
FC Jerusalem scores more
10%

Hapoel Bnei Ashdod at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Hapoel Bnei Ashdod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hapoel Bnei Ashdod vs FC Jerusalem

Hapoel Bnei Ashdod beat FC Jerusalem 3-1 in State Cup on September 13, 2023.

The match was played at Ashdod Senti in Ashdod.