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Hapoel Bnei Ashdod vs Bnei Eilat — State Cup 2019

Hapoel Bnei Ashdod
Hapoel Bnei Ashdod
FT
2 – 0
Bnei Eilat
Bnei Eilat
9/19/2023State CupState Cup · 3rd Round (Liga Bet)Ashdod Senti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Hapoel Bnei Ashdod76%
×Draw14%
Bnei Eilat10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Bnei Ashdod
2.75
Bnei Eilat
0.88

Hapoel Bnei Ashdod creates 213% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Hapoel Bnei Ashdod
2.00
Bnei Eilat
0.75

allows per match

Hapoel Bnei Ashdod
1.00
Bnei Eilat
3.50

finishing

Hapoel Bnei Ashdod+0.00on par
Bnei Eilat+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Bnei Ashdod ↓

Bnei Eilat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Hapoel Bnei Ashdod or draw
90%
Hapoel Bnei Ashdod or Bnei Eilat
86%
Draw or Bnei Eilat
24%

Winning margin

Hapoel Bnei Ashdod wins by 2+
55%
Bnei Eilat wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Hapoel Bnei Ashdod 1+ goals
93%
Hapoel Bnei Ashdod 2+ goals
75%
Hapoel Bnei Ashdod 3+ goals
51%
Bnei Eilat 1+ goals
59%
Bnei Eilat 2+ goals
22%
Bnei Eilat 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Bnei Ashdod (draw refunded)
89%
Bnei Eilat (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Bnei Ashdod at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Bnei Eilat away — creates 0.75, concedes 3.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Bnei Ashdod attack 2.00 + Bnei Eilat defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 2.75

Bnei Eilat attack 0.75 + Hapoel Bnei Ashdod defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Hapoel Bnei Ashdod scores more
76%
level
14%
Bnei Eilat scores more
10%

Hapoel Bnei Ashdod at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Hapoel Bnei Ashdod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hapoel Bnei Ashdod vs Bnei Eilat

Hapoel Bnei Ashdod beat Bnei Eilat 2-0 in State Cup on September 19, 2023.

The match was played at Ashdod Senti in Ashdod.