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Hapoel Bnei Ar'ara 'Ara vs Ironi Baka El Garbiya — League #496 2026

Hapoel Bnei Ar'ara 'Ara
Hapoel Bnei Ar'ara 'Ara
FT
0 – 1
Ironi Baka El Garbiya
Ironi Baka El Garbiya
3/8/2022League #496League #496 · North - 27

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Hapoel Bnei Ar'ara 'Ara32%
×Draw35%
Ironi Baka El Garbiya32%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Bnei Ar'ara 'Ara
0.81
Ironi Baka El Garbiya
0.81

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 8 away

creates per match

Hapoel Bnei Ar'ara 'Ara
0.75
Ironi Baka El Garbiya
0.63

allows per match

Hapoel Bnei Ar'ara 'Ara
1.00
Ironi Baka El Garbiya
0.88

finishing

Hapoel Bnei Ar'ara 'Ara+0.00on par
Ironi Baka El Garbiya+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Under
  • Under78
  • Over22

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Bnei Ar'ara 'Ara ↓

Ironi Baka El Garbiya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–020%
0–116%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–15%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (20%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
80%20%1.5
48%52%2.5
22%78%3.5
8%92%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Hapoel Bnei Ar'ara 'Ara or draw
68%
Hapoel Bnei Ar'ara 'Ara or Ironi Baka El Garbiya
65%
Draw or Ironi Baka El Garbiya
68%

Winning margin

Hapoel Bnei Ar'ara 'Ara wins by 2+
11%
Ironi Baka El Garbiya wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Hapoel Bnei Ar'ara 'Ara 1+ goals
56%
Hapoel Bnei Ar'ara 'Ara 2+ goals
19%
Hapoel Bnei Ar'ara 'Ara 3+ goals
5%
Ironi Baka El Garbiya 1+ goals
56%
Ironi Baka El Garbiya 2+ goals
19%
Ironi Baka El Garbiya 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Bnei Ar'ara 'Ara (draw refunded)
50%
Ironi Baka El Garbiya (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Bnei Ar'ara 'Ara at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Ironi Baka El Garbiya away — creates 0.63, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Bnei Ar'ara 'Ara attack 0.75 + Ironi Baka El Garbiya defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.81

Ironi Baka El Garbiya attack 0.63 + Hapoel Bnei Ar'ara 'Ara defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 32%?"

Hapoel Bnei Ar'ara 'Ara scores more
32%
level
35%
Ironi Baka El Garbiya scores more
32%

Hapoel Bnei Ar'ara 'Ara at 32% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 32% does not mean "Hapoel Bnei Ar'ara 'Ara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #496: Hapoel Bnei Ar'ara 'Ara 0–1 Ironi Baka El Garbiya

Ironi Baka El Garbiya beat Hapoel Bnei Ar'ara 'Ara 1-0 in League #496 on March 8, 2022.