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Hapoel Bnei Ar'ara 'Ara vs Hapoel Bnei Musmus — State Cup 2019

Hapoel Bnei Ar'ara 'Ara
Hapoel Bnei Ar'ara 'Ara
FT
0 – 2
Hapoel Bnei Musmus
Hapoel Bnei Musmus
8/31/2022State CupState Cup · 1st Round (Liga Bet)Municipal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Hapoel Bnei Ar'ara 'Ara29%
×Draw28%
Hapoel Bnei Musmus43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Bnei Ar'ara 'Ara
1.03
Hapoel Bnei Musmus
1.30

Hapoel Bnei Musmus creates 26% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

Hapoel Bnei Ar'ara 'Ara
0.67
Hapoel Bnei Musmus
1.60

allows per match

Hapoel Bnei Ar'ara 'Ara
1.00
Hapoel Bnei Musmus
1.40

finishing

Hapoel Bnei Ar'ara 'Ara+0.00on par
Hapoel Bnei Musmus+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Bnei Ar'ara 'Ara ↓

Hapoel Bnei Musmus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Hapoel Bnei Ar'ara 'Ara or draw
57%
Hapoel Bnei Ar'ara 'Ara or Hapoel Bnei Musmus
72%
Draw or Hapoel Bnei Musmus
71%

Winning margin

Hapoel Bnei Ar'ara 'Ara wins by 2+
11%
Hapoel Bnei Musmus wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Hapoel Bnei Ar'ara 'Ara 1+ goals
64%
Hapoel Bnei Ar'ara 'Ara 2+ goals
28%
Hapoel Bnei Ar'ara 'Ara 3+ goals
9%
Hapoel Bnei Musmus 1+ goals
73%
Hapoel Bnei Musmus 2+ goals
37%
Hapoel Bnei Musmus 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Bnei Ar'ara 'Ara (draw refunded)
41%
Hapoel Bnei Musmus (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Bnei Ar'ara 'Ara at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Hapoel Bnei Musmus away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Bnei Ar'ara 'Ara attack 0.67 + Hapoel Bnei Musmus defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.03

Hapoel Bnei Musmus attack 1.60 + Hapoel Bnei Ar'ara 'Ara defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Hapoel Bnei Ar'ara 'Ara scores more
29%
level
28%
Hapoel Bnei Musmus scores more
43%

Hapoel Bnei Musmus at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Hapoel Bnei Musmus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hapoel Bnei Ar'ara 'Ara vs Hapoel Bnei Musmus

Hapoel Bnei Musmus beat Hapoel Bnei Ar'ara 'Ara 2-0 in State Cup on August 31, 2022.

The match was played at Municipal Stadium in Jatt.