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Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden vs Ironi Tiberias — State Cup 2019

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden
Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden
FT
0 – 1
Ironi Tiberias
Ironi Tiberias
10/18/2022State CupState Cup · 7th RoundMoshava Training Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden27%
×Draw27%
Ironi Tiberias47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden
1.00
Ironi Tiberias
1.42

Ironi Tiberias creates 42% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

creates per match

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden
1.67
Ironi Tiberias
1.83

allows per match

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden
1.00
Ironi Tiberias
0.33

finishing

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden+0.00on par
Ironi Tiberias+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden ↓

Ironi Tiberias →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden or draw
53%
Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden or Ironi Tiberias
73%
Draw or Ironi Tiberias
73%

Winning margin

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden wins by 2+
10%
Ironi Tiberias wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden 1+ goals
63%
Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden 2+ goals
26%
Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden 3+ goals
8%
Ironi Tiberias 1+ goals
76%
Ironi Tiberias 2+ goals
41%
Ironi Tiberias 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden (draw refunded)
36%
Ironi Tiberias (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Ironi Tiberias away — creates 1.83, concedes 0.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden attack 1.67 + Ironi Tiberias defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 1.00

Ironi Tiberias attack 1.83 + Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden scores more
27%
level
27%
Ironi Tiberias scores more
47%

Ironi Tiberias at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Ironi Tiberias will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

State Cup: Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden 0–1 Ironi Tiberias

Ironi Tiberias beat Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden 1-0 in State Cup on October 18, 2022.

The match was played at Moshava Training Field in Petach-Tikva.