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Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden vs Holon Yermiyahu — State Cup 2019

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden
Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden
Pens
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Holon Yermiyahu
Holon Yermiyahu
11/20/2020State CupState Cup · 1st RoundMoshava Training Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden28%
×Draw22%
Holon Yermiyahu49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden
1.39
Holon Yermiyahu
1.90

Holon Yermiyahu creates 37% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 10 away

creates per match

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden
1.67
Holon Yermiyahu
2.80

allows per match

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden
1.00
Holon Yermiyahu
1.10

finishing

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden+0.00on par
Holon Yermiyahu+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden ↓

Holon Yermiyahu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden or draw
51%
Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden or Holon Yermiyahu
78%
Draw or Holon Yermiyahu
72%

Winning margin

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden wins by 2+
12%
Holon Yermiyahu wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden 1+ goals
75%
Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden 2+ goals
40%
Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden 3+ goals
16%
Holon Yermiyahu 1+ goals
85%
Holon Yermiyahu 2+ goals
56%
Holon Yermiyahu 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden (draw refunded)
36%
Holon Yermiyahu (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Holon Yermiyahu away — creates 2.80, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden attack 1.67 + Holon Yermiyahu defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.39

Holon Yermiyahu attack 2.80 + Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden scores more
28%
level
22%
Holon Yermiyahu scores more
49%

Holon Yermiyahu at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Holon Yermiyahu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden vs Holon Yermiyahu

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden and Holon Yermiyahu drew 0-0 in State Cup on November 20, 2020.

The match was played at Moshava Training Field in Petach-Tikva.