Hapoel Beit Shean 3–0 Hapoel Segev Shalom

Hapoel Beit Shean

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Hapoel Segev Shalom

11/5/2024

State Cup · 6th RoundBeit-She'an Municipal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Hapoel Beit Shean66%

×Draw16%

Hapoel Segev Shalom18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hapoel Beit SheanExpected goals in this matchHapoel Segev Shalom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.13

1.63

Hapoel Beit Shean

3.13

Hapoel Segev Shalom

1.63

Hapoel Beit Shean creates 92% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

3.00

creates per match

1.75

1.50

allows per match

3.25

creates per match

Hapoel Beit Shean

3.00

Hapoel Segev Shalom

1.75

allows per match

Hapoel Beit Shean

1.50

Hapoel Segev Shalom

3.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hapoel Beit Shean+0.00on par

Hapoel Segev Shalom+0.00on par

Total goals

Over85
Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Beit Shean ↓

Hapoel Segev Shalom →

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1–03%

1–15%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–05%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4–04%

4–16%

4–25%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

85%15%3.5

69%31%4.5

50%50%

Double chance

Hapoel Beit Shean or draw

82%

Hapoel Beit Shean or Hapoel Segev Shalom

84%

Draw or Hapoel Segev Shalom

34%

Winning margin

Hapoel Beit Shean wins by 2+

47%

Hapoel Segev Shalom wins by 2+

Team goals

Hapoel Beit Shean 1+ goals

95%

Hapoel Beit Shean 2+ goals

81%

Hapoel Beit Shean 3+ goals

59%

Hapoel Segev Shalom 1+ goals

80%

Hapoel Segev Shalom 2+ goals

48%

Hapoel Segev Shalom 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Beit Shean (draw refunded)

79%

Hapoel Segev Shalom (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

72%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Beit Shean at home — creates 3.00, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Hapoel Segev Shalom away — creates 1.75, concedes 3.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Beit Shean attack 3.00 + Hapoel Segev Shalom defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 3.13

Hapoel Segev Shalom attack 1.75 + Hapoel Beit Shean defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 66%?"

Hapoel Beit Shean scores more

66%

level

16%

Hapoel Segev Shalom scores more

18%

Hapoel Beit Shean at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Hapoel Beit Shean will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff