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Hapoel Beit Shean vs Hapoel Sandala Gilboa — State Cup 2019

Hapoel Beit Shean
Hapoel Beit Shean
FT
7 – 1
Hapoel Sandala Gilboa
Hapoel Sandala Gilboa
8/30/2022State CupState Cup · 1st Round (Liga Bet)Beit-She'an Municipal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Hapoel Beit Shean68%
×Draw15%
Hapoel Sandala Gilboa17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Beit Shean
3.17
Hapoel Sandala Gilboa
1.58

Hapoel Beit Shean creates 101% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

creates per match

Hapoel Beit Shean
3.00
Hapoel Sandala Gilboa
1.67

allows per match

Hapoel Beit Shean
1.50
Hapoel Sandala Gilboa
3.33

finishing

Hapoel Beit Shean+0.00on par
Hapoel Sandala Gilboa+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Beit Shean ↓

Hapoel Sandala Gilboa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–25%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
68%32%4.5
49%51%

Double chance

Hapoel Beit Shean or draw
83%
Hapoel Beit Shean or Hapoel Sandala Gilboa
85%
Draw or Hapoel Sandala Gilboa
32%

Winning margin

Hapoel Beit Shean wins by 2+
48%
Hapoel Sandala Gilboa wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Hapoel Beit Shean 1+ goals
96%
Hapoel Beit Shean 2+ goals
82%
Hapoel Beit Shean 3+ goals
60%
Hapoel Sandala Gilboa 1+ goals
79%
Hapoel Sandala Gilboa 2+ goals
47%
Hapoel Sandala Gilboa 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Beit Shean (draw refunded)
80%
Hapoel Sandala Gilboa (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Beit Shean at home — creates 3.00, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Hapoel Sandala Gilboa away — creates 1.67, concedes 3.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Beit Shean attack 3.00 + Hapoel Sandala Gilboa defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 3.17

Hapoel Sandala Gilboa attack 1.67 + Hapoel Beit Shean defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Hapoel Beit Shean scores more
68%
level
15%
Hapoel Sandala Gilboa scores more
17%

Hapoel Beit Shean at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Hapoel Beit Shean will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hapoel Beit Shean vs Hapoel Sandala Gilboa

Hapoel Beit Shean beat Hapoel Sandala Gilboa 7-1 in State Cup on August 30, 2022.

The match was played at Beit-She'an Municipal Stadium in Beit She'an.