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Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Plzen — UEFA Europa League 2026

Hapoel Beer Sheva
Hapoel Beer Sheva
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Plzen
Plzen
10/1/2020UEFA Europa LeagueUEFA Europa League · Play-offsToto Turner Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Hapoel Beer Sheva54%
×Draw26%
Plzen20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Beer Sheva
1.51
Plzen
0.82

Hapoel Beer Sheva creates 84% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 8 away

creates per match

Hapoel Beer Sheva
1.90
Plzen
0.75

allows per match

Hapoel Beer Sheva
0.90
Plzen
1.13

finishing

Hapoel Beer Sheva+0.00on par
Plzen+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Beer Sheva ↓

Plzen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Hapoel Beer Sheva or draw
80%
Hapoel Beer Sheva or Plzen
74%
Draw or Plzen
46%

Winning margin

Hapoel Beer Sheva wins by 2+
28%
Plzen wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Hapoel Beer Sheva 1+ goals
78%
Hapoel Beer Sheva 2+ goals
44%
Hapoel Beer Sheva 3+ goals
19%
Plzen 1+ goals
56%
Plzen 2+ goals
20%
Plzen 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Beer Sheva (draw refunded)
72%
Plzen (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Beer Sheva at home — creates 1.90, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

Plzen away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Beer Sheva attack 1.90 + Plzen defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.51

Plzen attack 0.75 + Hapoel Beer Sheva defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Hapoel Beer Sheva scores more
54%
level
26%
Plzen scores more
20%

Hapoel Beer Sheva at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Hapoel Beer Sheva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Europa League: Hapoel Beer Sheva 1–0 Plzen

Hapoel Beer Sheva beat Plzen 1-0 in UEFA Europa League on October 1, 2020.

The match was played at Toto Turner Stadium in Beersheba.