Hapoel Beer Sheva 1–2 Bnei Sakhnin: Result & Stats

Hapoel Beer Sheva

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Bnei Sakhnin

12/6/2023

Ligat Ha'al · Round 7Yaakov Turner Toto Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Hapoel Beer Sheva55%

×Draw25%

Bnei Sakhnin21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hapoel Beer ShevaExpected goals in this matchBnei Sakhnin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

0.91

Hapoel Beer Sheva

1.65

Bnei Sakhnin

0.91

Hapoel Beer Sheva creates 81% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 102 away

1.92

creates per match

0.91

0.90

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Hapoel Beer Sheva

1.92

Bnei Sakhnin

0.91

allows per match

Hapoel Beer Sheva

0.90

Bnei Sakhnin

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hapoel Beer Sheva+0.00on par

Bnei Sakhnin+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Beer Sheva ↓

Bnei Sakhnin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Hapoel Beer Sheva or draw

79%

Hapoel Beer Sheva or Bnei Sakhnin

75%

Draw or Bnei Sakhnin

45%

Winning margin

Hapoel Beer Sheva wins by 2+

30%

Bnei Sakhnin wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Hapoel Beer Sheva 1+ goals

81%

Hapoel Beer Sheva 2+ goals

49%

Hapoel Beer Sheva 3+ goals

23%

Bnei Sakhnin 1+ goals

60%

Bnei Sakhnin 2+ goals

23%

Bnei Sakhnin 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Beer Sheva (draw refunded)

73%

Bnei Sakhnin (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Beer Sheva at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.90 · 126 matches

Bnei Sakhnin away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.37 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Beer Sheva attack 1.92 + Bnei Sakhnin defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.65

Bnei Sakhnin attack 0.91 + Hapoel Beer Sheva defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Hapoel Beer Sheva scores more

55%

level

25%

Bnei Sakhnin scores more

21%

Hapoel Beer Sheva at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Hapoel Beer Sheva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff