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Bnei Sakhnin vs Hapoel Beer Sheva — Ligat Ha'al 2019

Bnei Sakhnin
Bnei Sakhnin
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 2
Hapoel Beer Sheva
Hapoel Beer Sheva
1/3/2026Ligat Ha'alLigat Ha'al · Round 17Doha Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Bnei Sakhnin27%
×Draw28%
Hapoel Beer Sheva45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bnei Sakhnin
0.97
Hapoel Beer Sheva
1.32

Hapoel Beer Sheva creates 36% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 126 away

creates per match

Bnei Sakhnin
0.93
Hapoel Beer Sheva
1.38

allows per match

Bnei Sakhnin
1.26
Hapoel Beer Sheva
1.01

finishing

Bnei Sakhnin+0.00on par
Hapoel Beer Sheva+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bnei Sakhnin ↓

Hapoel Beer Sheva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Bnei Sakhnin or draw
55%
Bnei Sakhnin or Hapoel Beer Sheva
72%
Draw or Hapoel Beer Sheva
73%

Winning margin

Bnei Sakhnin wins by 2+
10%
Hapoel Beer Sheva wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Bnei Sakhnin 1+ goals
62%
Bnei Sakhnin 2+ goals
25%
Bnei Sakhnin 3+ goals
7%
Hapoel Beer Sheva 1+ goals
73%
Hapoel Beer Sheva 2+ goals
38%
Hapoel Beer Sheva 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Bnei Sakhnin (draw refunded)
38%
Hapoel Beer Sheva (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bnei Sakhnin at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.26 · 102 matches

Hapoel Beer Sheva away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.01 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bnei Sakhnin attack 0.93 + Hapoel Beer Sheva defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.97

Hapoel Beer Sheva attack 1.38 + Bnei Sakhnin defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Bnei Sakhnin scores more
27%
level
28%
Hapoel Beer Sheva scores more
45%

Hapoel Beer Sheva at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Hapoel Beer Sheva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bnei Sakhnin vs Hapoel Beer Sheva

Hapoel Beer Sheva beat Bnei Sakhnin 5-0 in Ligat Ha'al on January 3, 2026.

The match was played at Doha Stadium in Sakhnin.