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Hapoel Azor vs Hapoel Lod — State Cup 2019

Hapoel Azor
Hapoel Azor
FT
6 – 1
Hapoel Lod
Hapoel Lod
12/4/2022State CupState Cup · 4th Round (Liga Bet)New Lod Santati

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Hapoel Azor55%
×Draw20%
Hapoel Lod25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Azor
2.33
Hapoel Lod
1.53

Hapoel Azor creates 52% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Hapoel Azor
2.67
Hapoel Lod
1.40

allows per match

Hapoel Azor
1.67
Hapoel Lod
2.00

finishing

Hapoel Azor+0.00on par
Hapoel Lod+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Azor ↓

Hapoel Lod →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Hapoel Azor or draw
75%
Hapoel Azor or Hapoel Lod
80%
Draw or Hapoel Lod
45%

Winning margin

Hapoel Azor wins by 2+
34%
Hapoel Lod wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Hapoel Azor 1+ goals
90%
Hapoel Azor 2+ goals
67%
Hapoel Azor 3+ goals
41%
Hapoel Lod 1+ goals
78%
Hapoel Lod 2+ goals
45%
Hapoel Lod 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Azor (draw refunded)
69%
Hapoel Lod (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Azor at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

Hapoel Lod away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Azor attack 2.67 + Hapoel Lod defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.33

Hapoel Lod attack 1.40 + Hapoel Azor defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Hapoel Azor scores more
55%
level
20%
Hapoel Lod scores more
25%

Hapoel Azor at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Hapoel Azor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

State Cup: Hapoel Azor 6–1 Hapoel Lod

Hapoel Azor beat Hapoel Lod 6-1 in State Cup on December 4, 2022.

The match was played at New Lod Santati in Lod.