Hapoel Azor 4–2 HaMakhtesh Givatayim

Hapoel Azor

AET

4 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

HaMakhtesh Givatayim

9/13/2022

State Cup · 3rd Round (Liga Bet)Azor Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Hapoel Azor46%

×Draw22%

HaMakhtesh Givatayim33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hapoel AzorExpected goals in this matchHaMakhtesh Givatayim

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.67

Hapoel Azor

2.00

HaMakhtesh Givatayim

1.67

Hapoel Azor creates 20% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

2.67

creates per match

1.67

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Hapoel Azor

2.67

HaMakhtesh Givatayim

1.67

allows per match

Hapoel Azor

1.67

HaMakhtesh Givatayim

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hapoel Azor+0.00on par

HaMakhtesh Givatayim+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Azor ↓

HaMakhtesh Givatayim →

0–03%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1–05%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Hapoel Azor or draw

67%

Hapoel Azor or HaMakhtesh Givatayim

78%

Draw or HaMakhtesh Givatayim

54%

Winning margin

Hapoel Azor wins by 2+

26%

HaMakhtesh Givatayim wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Hapoel Azor 1+ goals

86%

Hapoel Azor 2+ goals

59%

Hapoel Azor 3+ goals

32%

HaMakhtesh Givatayim 1+ goals

81%

HaMakhtesh Givatayim 2+ goals

50%

HaMakhtesh Givatayim 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Azor (draw refunded)

58%

HaMakhtesh Givatayim (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Azor at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

HaMakhtesh Givatayim away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Azor attack 2.67 + HaMakhtesh Givatayim defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 2.00

HaMakhtesh Givatayim attack 1.67 + Hapoel Azor defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

Hapoel Azor scores more

46%

level

22%

HaMakhtesh Givatayim scores more

33%

Hapoel Azor at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Hapoel Azor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hapoel Azor vs HaMakhtesh Givatayim

Hapoel Azor beat HaMakhtesh Givatayim 4-2 in State Cup on September 13, 2022.

The match was played at Azor Stadium in Azor.

Hapoel Azor vs HaMakhtesh Givatayim — State Cup 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Hapoel Azor vs HaMakhtesh Givatayim