Hapoel Ashkelon 0–3 Hapoel Umm al-Fahm

Hapoel Ashkelon

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm

7/2/2020

Liga Leumit · Relegation Round - 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Hapoel Ashkelon33%

×Draw25%

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm42%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hapoel AshkelonExpected goals in this matchHapoel Umm al-Fahm

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.52

Hapoel Ashkelon

1.33

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm

1.52

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm creates 14% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 99 away

1.20

creates per match

1.05

2.00

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Hapoel Ashkelon

1.20

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm

1.05

allows per match

Hapoel Ashkelon

2.00

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hapoel Ashkelon+0.00on par

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Ashkelon ↓

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Hapoel Ashkelon or draw

58%

Hapoel Ashkelon or Hapoel Umm al-Fahm

75%

Draw or Hapoel Umm al-Fahm

67%

Winning margin

Hapoel Ashkelon wins by 2+

15%

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Hapoel Ashkelon 1+ goals

74%

Hapoel Ashkelon 2+ goals

38%

Hapoel Ashkelon 3+ goals

15%

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 1+ goals

78%

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 2+ goals

45%

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Ashkelon (draw refunded)

44%

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Ashkelon at home — creates 1.20, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.46 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Ashkelon attack 1.20 + Hapoel Umm al-Fahm defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.33

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm attack 1.05 + Hapoel Ashkelon defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Hapoel Ashkelon scores more

33%

level

25%

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm scores more

42%

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Hapoel Umm al-Fahm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff