Hapoel Ashkelon 1–1 Hapoel Nazareth Illit

Hapoel Ashkelon

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Hapoel Nazareth Illit

6/15/2020

Liga Leumit · Relegation Round - 2Sela Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Hapoel Ashkelon30%

×Draw24%

Hapoel Nazareth Illit45%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hapoel AshkelonExpected goals in this matchHapoel Nazareth Illit

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.63

Hapoel Ashkelon

1.29

Hapoel Nazareth Illit

1.63

Hapoel Nazareth Illit creates 26% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 108 away

1.20

creates per match

1.26

2.00

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Hapoel Ashkelon

1.20

Hapoel Nazareth Illit

1.26

allows per match

Hapoel Ashkelon

2.00

Hapoel Nazareth Illit

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hapoel Ashkelon+0.00on par

Hapoel Nazareth Illit+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Ashkelon ↓

Hapoel Nazareth Illit →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Hapoel Ashkelon or draw

55%

Hapoel Ashkelon or Hapoel Nazareth Illit

76%

Draw or Hapoel Nazareth Illit

70%

Winning margin

Hapoel Ashkelon wins by 2+

13%

Hapoel Nazareth Illit wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Hapoel Ashkelon 1+ goals

72%

Hapoel Ashkelon 2+ goals

37%

Hapoel Ashkelon 3+ goals

14%

Hapoel Nazareth Illit 1+ goals

80%

Hapoel Nazareth Illit 2+ goals

48%

Hapoel Nazareth Illit 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Ashkelon (draw refunded)

40%

Hapoel Nazareth Illit (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Ashkelon at home — creates 1.20, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

Hapoel Nazareth Illit away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.39 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Ashkelon attack 1.20 + Hapoel Nazareth Illit defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.29

Hapoel Nazareth Illit attack 1.26 + Hapoel Ashkelon defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Hapoel Ashkelon scores more

30%

level

24%

Hapoel Nazareth Illit scores more

45%

Hapoel Nazareth Illit at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Hapoel Nazareth Illit will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff