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Hapoel Ashkelon vs Hapoel Afula — Liga Leumit 2019

Hapoel Ashkelon
Hapoel Ashkelon
FT
4 – 5
HT: 2 – 2
Hapoel Afula
Hapoel Afula
6/22/2020Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Relegation Round - 4Ashkelon Artificial Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Hapoel Ashkelon35%
×Draw24%
Hapoel Afula40%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Ashkelon
1.42
Hapoel Afula
1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 115 away

creates per match

Hapoel Ashkelon
1.20
Hapoel Afula
1.07

allows per match

Hapoel Ashkelon
2.00
Hapoel Afula
1.64

finishing

Hapoel Ashkelon+0.00on par
Hapoel Afula+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Ashkelon ↓

Hapoel Afula →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Hapoel Ashkelon or draw
60%
Hapoel Ashkelon or Hapoel Afula
76%
Draw or Hapoel Afula
65%

Winning margin

Hapoel Ashkelon wins by 2+
16%
Hapoel Afula wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Hapoel Ashkelon 1+ goals
76%
Hapoel Ashkelon 2+ goals
41%
Hapoel Ashkelon 3+ goals
17%
Hapoel Afula 1+ goals
79%
Hapoel Afula 2+ goals
45%
Hapoel Afula 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Ashkelon (draw refunded)
47%
Hapoel Afula (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Ashkelon at home — creates 1.20, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

Hapoel Afula away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.64 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Ashkelon attack 1.20 + Hapoel Afula defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.42

Hapoel Afula attack 1.07 + Hapoel Ashkelon defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Hapoel Ashkelon scores more
35%
level
24%
Hapoel Afula scores more
40%

Hapoel Afula at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Hapoel Afula will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Leumit: Hapoel Ashkelon 4–5 Hapoel Afula

Hapoel Afula beat Hapoel Ashkelon 5-4 in Liga Leumit on June 22, 2020.

The match was played at Ashkelon Artificial Field in Ashkelon.