Hapoel Afula 2–3 Maccabi Herzliya: Result & Stats

Hapoel Afula

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Maccabi Herzliya

1/3/2025

Liga Leumit · Round 17Afula Illit Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Hapoel Afula40%

×Draw26%

Maccabi Herzliya34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hapoel AfulaExpected goals in this matchMaccabi Herzliya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.27

Hapoel Afula

1.40

Maccabi Herzliya

1.27

Hapoel Afula creates 10% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 56 away

1.21

creates per match

1.27

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Hapoel Afula

1.21

Maccabi Herzliya

1.27

allows per match

Hapoel Afula

1.27

Maccabi Herzliya

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hapoel Afula+0.00on par

Maccabi Herzliya+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Afula ↓

Maccabi Herzliya →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Hapoel Afula or draw

66%

Hapoel Afula or Maccabi Herzliya

74%

Draw or Maccabi Herzliya

60%

Winning margin

Hapoel Afula wins by 2+

19%

Maccabi Herzliya wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Hapoel Afula 1+ goals

75%

Hapoel Afula 2+ goals

41%

Hapoel Afula 3+ goals

17%

Maccabi Herzliya 1+ goals

72%

Maccabi Herzliya 2+ goals

36%

Maccabi Herzliya 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Afula (draw refunded)

54%

Maccabi Herzliya (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Afula at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.27 · 132 matches

Maccabi Herzliya away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.59 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Afula attack 1.21 + Maccabi Herzliya defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.40

Maccabi Herzliya attack 1.27 + Hapoel Afula defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Hapoel Afula scores more

40%

level

26%

Maccabi Herzliya scores more

34%

Hapoel Afula at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Hapoel Afula will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff