Hapoel Afula 1–1 Hapoel Umm al-Fahm: Result & Stats

Hapoel Afula

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm

2/16/2024

Liga Leumit · Round 22Afula Illit Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Hapoel Afula40%

×Draw27%

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hapoel AfulaExpected goals in this matchHapoel Umm al-Fahm

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.17

Hapoel Afula

1.32

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm

1.17

Hapoel Afula creates 13% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 112 away

1.21

creates per match

1.06

1.27

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Hapoel Afula

1.21

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm

1.06

allows per match

Hapoel Afula

1.27

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hapoel Afula+0.00on par

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Afula ↓

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Hapoel Afula or draw

67%

Hapoel Afula or Hapoel Umm al-Fahm

73%

Draw or Hapoel Umm al-Fahm

60%

Winning margin

Hapoel Afula wins by 2+

18%

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Hapoel Afula 1+ goals

73%

Hapoel Afula 2+ goals

38%

Hapoel Afula 3+ goals

15%

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 1+ goals

69%

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 2+ goals

33%

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Afula (draw refunded)

55%

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Afula at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.27 · 132 matches

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.44 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Afula attack 1.21 + Hapoel Umm al-Fahm defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.32

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm attack 1.06 + Hapoel Afula defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Hapoel Afula scores more

40%

level

27%

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm scores more

33%

Hapoel Afula at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Hapoel Afula will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff