Hapoel Afula 0–0 Hapoel Nazareth Illit

Hapoel Afula

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Hapoel Nazareth Illit

2/28/2025

Liga Leumit · Round 26Afula Illit Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 113+ matches

Hapoel Afula38%

×Draw27%

Hapoel Nazareth Illit35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hapoel AfulaExpected goals in this matchHapoel Nazareth Illit

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.25

Hapoel Afula

1.31

Hapoel Nazareth Illit

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 132 home / 113 away

1.21

creates per match

1.23

1.27

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Hapoel Afula

1.21

Hapoel Nazareth Illit

1.23

allows per match

Hapoel Afula

1.27

Hapoel Nazareth Illit

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hapoel Afula+0.00on par

Hapoel Nazareth Illit+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Afula ↓

Hapoel Nazareth Illit →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Hapoel Afula or draw

65%

Hapoel Afula or Hapoel Nazareth Illit

73%

Draw or Hapoel Nazareth Illit

62%

Winning margin

Hapoel Afula wins by 2+

17%

Hapoel Nazareth Illit wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Hapoel Afula 1+ goals

73%

Hapoel Afula 2+ goals

38%

Hapoel Afula 3+ goals

14%

Hapoel Nazareth Illit 1+ goals

71%

Hapoel Nazareth Illit 2+ goals

36%

Hapoel Nazareth Illit 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Afula (draw refunded)

52%

Hapoel Nazareth Illit (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Afula at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.27 · 132 matches

Hapoel Nazareth Illit away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.42 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Afula attack 1.21 + Hapoel Nazareth Illit defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.31

Hapoel Nazareth Illit attack 1.23 + Hapoel Afula defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Hapoel Afula scores more

38%

level

27%

Hapoel Nazareth Illit scores more

35%

Hapoel Afula at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Hapoel Afula will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff