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Hapoel Afula vs Hapoel Acre — Liga Leumit 2019

Hapoel Afula
Hapoel Afula
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Hapoel Acre
Hapoel Acre
12/1/2023Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Round 10Afula Illit Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 130+ matches

Hapoel Afula37%
×Draw28%
Hapoel Acre35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Afula
1.22
Hapoel Acre
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 132 home / 130 away

creates per match

Hapoel Afula
1.21
Hapoel Acre
1.07

allows per match

Hapoel Afula
1.27
Hapoel Acre
1.23

finishing

Hapoel Afula+0.00on par
Hapoel Acre+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Afula ↓

Hapoel Acre →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Hapoel Afula or draw
65%
Hapoel Afula or Hapoel Acre
72%
Draw or Hapoel Acre
63%

Winning margin

Hapoel Afula wins by 2+
16%
Hapoel Acre wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Hapoel Afula 1+ goals
70%
Hapoel Afula 2+ goals
34%
Hapoel Afula 3+ goals
12%
Hapoel Acre 1+ goals
69%
Hapoel Acre 2+ goals
33%
Hapoel Acre 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Afula (draw refunded)
52%
Hapoel Acre (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Afula at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.27 · 132 matches

Hapoel Acre away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.23 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Afula attack 1.21 + Hapoel Acre defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.22

Hapoel Acre attack 1.07 + Hapoel Afula defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Hapoel Afula scores more
37%
level
28%
Hapoel Acre scores more
35%

Hapoel Afula at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Hapoel Afula will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hapoel Afula vs Hapoel Acre

Hapoel Afula beat Hapoel Acre 1-0 in Liga Leumit on December 1, 2023.

The match was played at Afula Illit Stadium in Afula.