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Hapoel Acre vs Hapoel Afula — Liga Leumit 2019

Hapoel Acre
Hapoel Acre
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Hapoel Afula
Hapoel Afula
2/16/2026Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Round 23Acre Municipal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 129+ matches

Hapoel Acre45%
×Draw27%
Hapoel Afula28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Acre
1.39
Hapoel Afula
1.03

Hapoel Acre creates 35% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 129 away

creates per match

Hapoel Acre
1.16
Hapoel Afula
1.02

allows per match

Hapoel Acre
1.04
Hapoel Afula
1.61

finishing

Hapoel Acre+0.00on par
Hapoel Afula+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Acre ↓

Hapoel Afula →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Hapoel Acre or draw
72%
Hapoel Acre or Hapoel Afula
73%
Draw or Hapoel Afula
55%

Winning margin

Hapoel Acre wins by 2+
22%
Hapoel Afula wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Hapoel Acre 1+ goals
75%
Hapoel Acre 2+ goals
40%
Hapoel Acre 3+ goals
16%
Hapoel Afula 1+ goals
64%
Hapoel Afula 2+ goals
28%
Hapoel Afula 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Acre (draw refunded)
62%
Hapoel Afula (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Acre at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.04 · 129 matches

Hapoel Afula away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.61 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Acre attack 1.16 + Hapoel Afula defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.39

Hapoel Afula attack 1.02 + Hapoel Acre defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Hapoel Acre scores more
45%
level
27%
Hapoel Afula scores more
28%

Hapoel Acre at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Hapoel Acre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hapoel Acre vs Hapoel Afula

Hapoel Afula beat Hapoel Acre 2-0 in Liga Leumit on February 16, 2026.

The match was played at Acre Municipal Stadium in 'Akko (Accre).