Hapoel Acre 2–2 Hapoel Umm al-Fahm: Result & Stats

Hapoel Acre

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm

1/22/2024

Liga Leumit · Round 18Acre Municipal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Hapoel Acre42%

×Draw28%

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hapoel AcreExpected goals in this matchHapoel Umm al-Fahm

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.05

Hapoel Acre

1.30

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm

1.05

Hapoel Acre creates 24% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 112 away

1.16

creates per match

1.06

1.04

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Hapoel Acre

1.16

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm

1.06

allows per match

Hapoel Acre

1.04

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hapoel Acre+0.00on par

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Acre ↓

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Hapoel Acre or draw

70%

Hapoel Acre or Hapoel Umm al-Fahm

72%

Draw or Hapoel Umm al-Fahm

58%

Winning margin

Hapoel Acre wins by 2+

19%

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Hapoel Acre 1+ goals

73%

Hapoel Acre 2+ goals

37%

Hapoel Acre 3+ goals

14%

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 1+ goals

65%

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 2+ goals

28%

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Acre (draw refunded)

58%

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Acre at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.04 · 129 matches

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.44 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Acre attack 1.16 + Hapoel Umm al-Fahm defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.30

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm attack 1.06 + Hapoel Acre defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Hapoel Acre scores more

42%

level

28%

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm scores more

30%

Hapoel Acre at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Hapoel Acre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff