Hapoel Acre 3–3 Hapoel Rishon LeZion

Hapoel Acre

FT

3 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

Hapoel Rishon LeZion

11/24/2023

Liga Leumit · Round 9Acre Municipal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 129+ matches

Hapoel Acre39%

×Draw28%

Hapoel Rishon LeZion33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hapoel AcreExpected goals in this matchHapoel Rishon LeZion

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.11

Hapoel Acre

1.25

Hapoel Rishon LeZion

1.11

Hapoel Acre creates 13% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 129 away

1.16

creates per match

1.18

1.04

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Hapoel Acre

1.16

Hapoel Rishon LeZion

1.18

allows per match

Hapoel Acre

1.04

Hapoel Rishon LeZion

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hapoel Acre+0.00on par

Hapoel Rishon LeZion+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Acre ↓

Hapoel Rishon LeZion →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Hapoel Acre or draw

67%

Hapoel Acre or Hapoel Rishon LeZion

72%

Draw or Hapoel Rishon LeZion

61%

Winning margin

Hapoel Acre wins by 2+

17%

Hapoel Rishon LeZion wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Hapoel Acre 1+ goals

71%

Hapoel Acre 2+ goals

36%

Hapoel Acre 3+ goals

13%

Hapoel Rishon LeZion 1+ goals

67%

Hapoel Rishon LeZion 2+ goals

30%

Hapoel Rishon LeZion 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Acre (draw refunded)

55%

Hapoel Rishon LeZion (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Acre at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.04 · 129 matches

Hapoel Rishon LeZion away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.33 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Acre attack 1.16 + Hapoel Rishon LeZion defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.25

Hapoel Rishon LeZion attack 1.18 + Hapoel Acre defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Hapoel Acre scores more

39%

level

28%

Hapoel Rishon LeZion scores more

33%

Hapoel Acre at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Hapoel Acre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff