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Hapoel Acre vs Hapoel Ashkelon — Liga Leumit 2019

Hapoel Acre
Hapoel Acre
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Hapoel Ashkelon
Hapoel Ashkelon
6/18/2020Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Relegation Round - 3Acre Municipal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Hapoel Acre38%
×Draw32%
Hapoel Ashkelon30%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Acre
1.00
Hapoel Ashkelon
0.85

Hapoel Acre creates 18% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 6 away

creates per match

Hapoel Acre
1.17
Hapoel Ashkelon
0.67

allows per match

Hapoel Acre
1.04
Hapoel Ashkelon
0.83

finishing

Hapoel Acre+0.00on par
Hapoel Ashkelon+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Acre ↓

Hapoel Ashkelon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Hapoel Acre or draw
70%
Hapoel Acre or Hapoel Ashkelon
68%
Draw or Hapoel Ashkelon
62%

Winning margin

Hapoel Acre wins by 2+
15%
Hapoel Ashkelon wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Hapoel Acre 1+ goals
63%
Hapoel Acre 2+ goals
26%
Hapoel Acre 3+ goals
8%
Hapoel Ashkelon 1+ goals
57%
Hapoel Ashkelon 2+ goals
21%
Hapoel Ashkelon 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Acre (draw refunded)
56%
Hapoel Ashkelon (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Acre at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.04 · 116 matches

Hapoel Ashkelon away — creates 0.67, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Acre attack 1.17 + Hapoel Ashkelon defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.00

Hapoel Ashkelon attack 0.67 + Hapoel Acre defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Hapoel Acre scores more
38%
level
32%
Hapoel Ashkelon scores more
30%

Hapoel Acre at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Hapoel Acre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hapoel Acre vs Hapoel Ashkelon

Hapoel Acre and Hapoel Ashkelon drew 0-0 in Liga Leumit on June 18, 2020.

The match was played at Acre Municipal Stadium in Accre.