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HaPK Edustus vs PKKU — Suomen Cup 2018

HaPK Edustus
HaPK Edustus
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
PKKU
PKKU
5/8/2022Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 4th RoundKarhulan Keskuskenttä tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

HaPK Edustus19%
×Draw19%
PKKU62%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HaPK Edustus
1.27
PKKU
2.41

PKKU creates 90% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

creates per match

HaPK Edustus
1.86
PKKU
1.67

allows per match

HaPK Edustus
3.14
PKKU
0.67

finishing

HaPK Edustus+0.00on par
PKKU+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HaPK Edustus ↓

PKKU →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–27%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

HaPK Edustus or draw
38%
HaPK Edustus or PKKU
81%
Draw or PKKU
81%

Winning margin

HaPK Edustus wins by 2+
8%
PKKU wins by 2+
40%

Team goals

HaPK Edustus 1+ goals
72%
HaPK Edustus 2+ goals
36%
HaPK Edustus 3+ goals
14%
PKKU 1+ goals
91%
PKKU 2+ goals
69%
PKKU 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

HaPK Edustus (draw refunded)
23%
PKKU (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HaPK Edustus at home — creates 1.86, concedes 3.14 · 7 matches

PKKU away — creates 1.67, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HaPK Edustus attack 1.86 + PKKU defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.27

PKKU attack 1.67 + HaPK Edustus defence 3.14 → ÷2 → 2.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

HaPK Edustus scores more
19%
level
19%
PKKU scores more
62%

PKKU at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "PKKU will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: HaPK Edustus vs PKKU

HaPK Edustus and PKKU drew 1-1 in Suomen Cup on May 8, 2022.

The match was played at Karhulan Keskuskenttä tekonurmi in Kotka.