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HaPK Edustus vs Lahti — Suomen Cup 2018

HaPK Edustus
HaPK Edustus
FT
2 – 6
HT: 1 – 4
Lahti
Lahti
5/25/2022Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 5th RoundHamina UK N

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

HaPK Edustus19%
×Draw17%
Lahti65%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HaPK Edustus
1.54
Lahti
2.90

Lahti creates 88% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 23 away

creates per match

HaPK Edustus
1.86
Lahti
2.65

allows per match

HaPK Edustus
3.14
Lahti
1.22

finishing

HaPK Edustus+0.00on par
Lahti+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HaPK Edustus ↓

Lahti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–25%
0–35%
0–44%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–28%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
64%36%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

HaPK Edustus or draw
35%
HaPK Edustus or Lahti
83%
Draw or Lahti
81%

Winning margin

HaPK Edustus wins by 2+
8%
Lahti wins by 2+
45%

Team goals

HaPK Edustus 1+ goals
79%
HaPK Edustus 2+ goals
45%
HaPK Edustus 3+ goals
20%
Lahti 1+ goals
94%
Lahti 2+ goals
78%
Lahti 3+ goals
54%

Draw no bet

HaPK Edustus (draw refunded)
22%
Lahti (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HaPK Edustus at home — creates 1.86, concedes 3.14 · 7 matches

Lahti away — creates 2.65, concedes 1.22 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HaPK Edustus attack 1.86 + Lahti defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.54

Lahti attack 2.65 + HaPK Edustus defence 3.14 → ÷2 → 2.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

HaPK Edustus scores more
19%
level
17%
Lahti scores more
65%

Lahti at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Lahti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: HaPK Edustus 2–6 Lahti

Lahti beat HaPK Edustus 6-2 in Suomen Cup on May 25, 2022.

The match was played at Hamina UK N in Hamina.