HaPK Edustus 1–2 IPS Edustus: Result & Stats

HaPK Edustus

1 – 2

IPS Edustus

3/27/2024

Suomen Cup · 2nd RoundArto Tolsa Areena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

HaPK Edustus13%

×Draw13%

IPS Edustus74%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HaPK EdustusExpected goals in this matchIPS Edustus

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

3.95

HaPK Edustus

1.75

IPS Edustus

3.95

IPS Edustus creates 126% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

1.86

creates per match

4.75

3.14

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

HaPK Edustus

1.86

IPS Edustus

4.75

allows per match

HaPK Edustus

3.14

IPS Edustus

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

HaPK Edustus+0.00on par

IPS Edustus+0.00on par

Total goals

Over91
Under9

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes81
No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HaPK Edustus ↓

IPS Edustus →

0–00%

0–11%

0–23%

0–34%

0–44%

1–01%

1–13%

1–25%

1–37%

1–47%

2–01%

2–12%

2–24%

2–36%

2–46%

3–00%

3–11%

3–23%

3–33%

3–43%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (7%) · grid covers 69% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

97%3%2.5

91%9%3.5

80%20%4.5

63%37%

Double chance

HaPK Edustus or draw

26%

HaPK Edustus or IPS Edustus

87%

Draw or IPS Edustus

87%

Winning margin

HaPK Edustus wins by 2+

IPS Edustus wins by 2+

56%

Team goals

HaPK Edustus 1+ goals

83%

HaPK Edustus 2+ goals

52%

HaPK Edustus 3+ goals

25%

IPS Edustus 1+ goals

98%

IPS Edustus 2+ goals

89%

IPS Edustus 3+ goals

73%

Draw no bet

HaPK Edustus (draw refunded)

15%

IPS Edustus (draw refunded)

85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

78%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

HaPK Edustus at home — creates 1.86, concedes 3.14 · 7 matches

IPS Edustus away — creates 4.75, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

HaPK Edustus attack 1.86 + IPS Edustus defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.75

IPS Edustus attack 4.75 + HaPK Edustus defence 3.14 → ÷2 → 3.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 74%?"

HaPK Edustus scores more

13%

level

13%

IPS Edustus scores more

74%

IPS Edustus at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "IPS Edustus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff