Hanwell Town 2–2 Havant & Wville: Result & Stats

Hanwell Town

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Havant & Wville

D. Carr 83'

H. Seabrook 72'

R. Seager 61'

L. Maloney 56' (pen)

2/15/2025

League #60 · Southern South - 31The Powerday Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Hanwell Town43%

×Draw27%

Havant & Wville31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hanwell TownExpected goals in this matchHavant & Wville

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.13

Hanwell Town

1.38

Havant & Wville

1.13

Hanwell Town creates 22% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

1.50

creates per match

1.25

1.00

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Hanwell Town

1.50

Havant & Wville

1.25

allows per match

Hanwell Town

1.00

Havant & Wville

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hanwell Town+0.00on par

Havant & Wville+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hanwell Town ↓

Havant & Wville →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Hanwell Town or draw

69%

Hanwell Town or Havant & Wville

73%

Draw or Havant & Wville

57%

Winning margin

Hanwell Town wins by 2+

20%

Havant & Wville wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Hanwell Town 1+ goals

75%

Hanwell Town 2+ goals

40%

Hanwell Town 3+ goals

16%

Havant & Wville 1+ goals

68%

Havant & Wville 2+ goals

31%

Havant & Wville 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Hanwell Town (draw refunded)

58%

Havant & Wville (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hanwell Town at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Havant & Wville away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hanwell Town attack 1.50 + Havant & Wville defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.38

Havant & Wville attack 1.25 + Hanwell Town defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Hanwell Town scores more

43%

level

27%

Havant & Wville scores more

31%

Hanwell Town at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Hanwell Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

56'

L. MaloneyPenalty

61'

R. Seager

72'

H. Seabrook

83'

D. Carr

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff