Hanwell Town 2–0 Evesham United: Result & Stats

Hanwell Town

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Evesham United

H. Snee 59'

S. Sanogo 45'

3/24/2026

League #60 · Round 33The Powerday Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Hanwell Town58%

×Draw24%

Evesham United18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hanwell TownExpected goals in this matchEvesham United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

0.83

Hanwell Town

1.69

Evesham United

0.83

Hanwell Town creates 104% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 15 away

1.50

creates per match

0.67

1.00

allows per match

1.87

creates per match

Hanwell Town

1.50

Evesham United

0.67

allows per match

Hanwell Town

1.00

Evesham United

1.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hanwell Town+0.00on par

Evesham United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hanwell Town ↓

Evesham United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Hanwell Town or draw

82%

Hanwell Town or Evesham United

76%

Draw or Evesham United

42%

Winning margin

Hanwell Town wins by 2+

32%

Evesham United wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Hanwell Town 1+ goals

82%

Hanwell Town 2+ goals

50%

Hanwell Town 3+ goals

24%

Evesham United 1+ goals

56%

Evesham United 2+ goals

20%

Evesham United 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Hanwell Town (draw refunded)

76%

Evesham United (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hanwell Town at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Evesham United away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hanwell Town attack 1.50 + Evesham United defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.69

Evesham United attack 0.67 + Hanwell Town defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Hanwell Town scores more

58%

level

24%

Evesham United scores more

18%

Hanwell Town at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Hanwell Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'

S. Sanogo

59'

H. Snee

Hanwell

Evesham

Manager: C. Moore

Manager: N. Hunt