Hansa Rostock 2–1 VfL Osnabruck: Result & Stats

Hansa Rostock

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

VfL Osnabruck

8/26/2023

2. Bundesliga · Round 4Ostseestadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Hansa Rostock40%

×Draw26%

VfL Osnabruck34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hansa RostockExpected goals in this matchVfL Osnabruck

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.29

Hansa Rostock

1.42

VfL Osnabruck

1.29

Hansa Rostock creates 10% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 52 away

1.08

creates per match

1.06

1.51

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Hansa Rostock

1.08

VfL Osnabruck

1.06

allows per match

Hansa Rostock

1.51

VfL Osnabruck

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hansa Rostock+0.00on par

VfL Osnabruck+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hansa Rostock ↓

VfL Osnabruck →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Hansa Rostock or draw

66%

Hansa Rostock or VfL Osnabruck

74%

Draw or VfL Osnabruck

60%

Winning margin

Hansa Rostock wins by 2+

19%

VfL Osnabruck wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Hansa Rostock 1+ goals

76%

Hansa Rostock 2+ goals

41%

Hansa Rostock 3+ goals

17%

VfL Osnabruck 1+ goals

72%

VfL Osnabruck 2+ goals

37%

VfL Osnabruck 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Hansa Rostock (draw refunded)

54%

VfL Osnabruck (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hansa Rostock at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.51 · 51 matches

VfL Osnabruck away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.75 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hansa Rostock attack 1.08 + VfL Osnabruck defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.42

VfL Osnabruck attack 1.06 + Hansa Rostock defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Hansa Rostock scores more

40%

level

26%

VfL Osnabruck scores more

34%

Hansa Rostock at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Hansa Rostock will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff