Hansa Rostock 2–0 VfB Stuttgart: Result & Stats

Hansa Rostock

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

VfB Stuttgart

M. Pepic 84'

C. Soukou 8'

8/18/2018

DFB Pokal · 1st RoundOstseestadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Hansa Rostock9%

×Draw17%

VfB Stuttgart73%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hansa RostockExpected goals in this matchVfB Stuttgart

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.67

2.27

Hansa Rostock

0.67

VfB Stuttgart

2.27

VfB Stuttgart creates 239% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 17 away

0.57

creates per match

2.24

2.29

allows per match

0.76

creates per match

Hansa Rostock

0.57

VfB Stuttgart

2.24

allows per match

Hansa Rostock

2.29

VfB Stuttgart

0.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hansa Rostock+0.00on par

VfB Stuttgart+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hansa Rostock ↓

VfB Stuttgart →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–112%

0–214%

0–310%

0–46%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–01%

2–13%

2–23%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (14%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Hansa Rostock or draw

27%

Hansa Rostock or VfB Stuttgart

83%

Draw or VfB Stuttgart

91%

Winning margin

Hansa Rostock wins by 2+

2%

VfB Stuttgart wins by 2+

49%

Team goals

Hansa Rostock 1+ goals

49%

Hansa Rostock 2+ goals

15%

Hansa Rostock 3+ goals

3%

VfB Stuttgart 1+ goals

90%

VfB Stuttgart 2+ goals

66%

VfB Stuttgart 3+ goals

39%

Draw no bet

Hansa Rostock (draw refunded)

11%

VfB Stuttgart (draw refunded)

89%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hansa Rostock at home — creates 0.57, concedes 2.29 · 7 matches

VfB Stuttgart away — creates 2.24, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hansa Rostock attack 0.57 + VfB Stuttgart defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.67

VfB Stuttgart attack 2.24 + Hansa Rostock defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Hansa Rostock scores more

9%

level

17%

VfB Stuttgart scores more

73%

VfB Stuttgart at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "VfB Stuttgart will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

G. Castro

VfB Stuttgart · M

8.3

Match Events

8'

C. Soukou↳ V. Rankovic

36'

Merveille Biankadi

42'

Pablo Maffeo

56'

J. Hildebrandt← M. Biankadi

61'

C. Gentner← E. Thommy

71'

A. Donis← N. González

80'

W. Evseev← M. Königs

80'

C. Akolo← D. Aogo

84'

M. Pepic↳ C. Soukou

85'

Mirnes Pepic

89'

M. Reinthaler← C. Soukou

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HansaVfB

Overview

28%Possession72%

4Total Shots26

1Corners11

10Fouls7

Shots

4Total Shots26

3On Target2

0Off Target14

1Blocked10

2Inside Box14

2Outside Box12

Passing

28%Possession72%

275Total Passes682

191Accurate Passes600

69%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

10Fouls7

2Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

0Offsides1

DFB Pokal: Hansa Rostock 2–0 VfB Stuttgart

Hansa Rostock beat VfB Stuttgart 2-0 in DFB Pokal on August 18, 2018.

Goals: C. Soukou (8'), M. Pepic (84').

VfB Stuttgart controlled possession (72%) and registered 26 shots to 4.

The match was played at Ostseestadion in Rostock.

Hansa Rostock vs VfB Stuttgart — DFB Pokal 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DFB Pokal: Hansa Rostock 2–0 VfB Stuttgart