Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Hansa Rostock vs VfB Lübeck — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Hansa Rostock
Hansa Rostock
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
VfB Lübeck
VfB Lübeck
1/14/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Ostseestadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Hansa Rostock51%
×Draw20%
VfB Lübeck29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hansa Rostock
2.33
VfB Lübeck
1.73

Hansa Rostock creates 35% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 6 away

creates per match

Hansa Rostock
3.50
VfB Lübeck
2.17

allows per match

Hansa Rostock
1.30
VfB Lübeck
1.17

finishing

Hansa Rostock+0.00on par
VfB Lübeck+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hansa Rostock ↓

VfB Lübeck →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Hansa Rostock or draw
71%
Hansa Rostock or VfB Lübeck
80%
Draw or VfB Lübeck
49%

Winning margin

Hansa Rostock wins by 2+
31%
VfB Lübeck wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Hansa Rostock 1+ goals
90%
Hansa Rostock 2+ goals
67%
Hansa Rostock 3+ goals
41%
VfB Lübeck 1+ goals
82%
VfB Lübeck 2+ goals
52%
VfB Lübeck 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Hansa Rostock (draw refunded)
64%
VfB Lübeck (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hansa Rostock at home — creates 3.50, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

VfB Lübeck away — creates 2.17, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hansa Rostock attack 3.50 + VfB Lübeck defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 2.33

VfB Lübeck attack 2.17 + Hansa Rostock defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Hansa Rostock scores more
51%
level
20%
VfB Lübeck scores more
29%

Hansa Rostock at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Hansa Rostock will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Hansa Rostock 1–1 VfB Lübeck

Hansa Rostock and VfB Lübeck drew 1-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 14, 2024.

The match was played at Ostseestadion in Rostock.