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Hansa Rostock vs SpVgg Greuther Furth — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Hansa Rostock
Hansa Rostock
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
SpVgg Greuther Furth
SpVgg Greuther Furth
3/16/20242. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 26Ostseestadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Hansa Rostock37%
×Draw26%
SpVgg Greuther Furth37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hansa Rostock
1.38
SpVgg Greuther Furth
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 120 away

creates per match

Hansa Rostock
1.08
SpVgg Greuther Furth
1.25

allows per match

Hansa Rostock
1.51
SpVgg Greuther Furth
1.68

finishing

Hansa Rostock+0.00on par
SpVgg Greuther Furth+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hansa Rostock ↓

SpVgg Greuther Furth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Hansa Rostock or draw
63%
Hansa Rostock or SpVgg Greuther Furth
74%
Draw or SpVgg Greuther Furth
63%

Winning margin

Hansa Rostock wins by 2+
17%
SpVgg Greuther Furth wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Hansa Rostock 1+ goals
75%
Hansa Rostock 2+ goals
40%
Hansa Rostock 3+ goals
16%
SpVgg Greuther Furth 1+ goals
75%
SpVgg Greuther Furth 2+ goals
40%
SpVgg Greuther Furth 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Hansa Rostock (draw refunded)
50%
SpVgg Greuther Furth (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hansa Rostock at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.51 · 51 matches

SpVgg Greuther Furth away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.68 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hansa Rostock attack 1.08 + SpVgg Greuther Furth defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.38

SpVgg Greuther Furth attack 1.25 + Hansa Rostock defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Hansa Rostock scores more
37%
level
26%
SpVgg Greuther Furth scores more
37%

Hansa Rostock at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Hansa Rostock will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Bundesliga: Hansa Rostock 1–0 SpVgg Greuther Furth

Hansa Rostock beat SpVgg Greuther Furth 1-0 in 2. Bundesliga on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Ostseestadion in Rostock.