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Hansa Rostock vs SC Paderborn 07 — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Hansa Rostock
Hansa Rostock
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
SC Paderborn 07
SC Paderborn 07
10/8/20222. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 11Ostseestadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Hansa Rostock31%
×Draw25%
SC Paderborn 0744%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hansa Rostock
1.22
SC Paderborn 07
1.50

SC Paderborn 07 creates 23% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 120 away

creates per match

Hansa Rostock
1.08
SC Paderborn 07
1.48

allows per match

Hansa Rostock
1.51
SC Paderborn 07
1.35

finishing

Hansa Rostock+0.00on par
SC Paderborn 07+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hansa Rostock ↓

SC Paderborn 07 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Hansa Rostock or draw
56%
Hansa Rostock or SC Paderborn 07
75%
Draw or SC Paderborn 07
69%

Winning margin

Hansa Rostock wins by 2+
13%
SC Paderborn 07 wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Hansa Rostock 1+ goals
70%
Hansa Rostock 2+ goals
34%
Hansa Rostock 3+ goals
12%
SC Paderborn 07 1+ goals
78%
SC Paderborn 07 2+ goals
44%
SC Paderborn 07 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Hansa Rostock (draw refunded)
41%
SC Paderborn 07 (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hansa Rostock at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.51 · 51 matches

SC Paderborn 07 away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.35 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hansa Rostock attack 1.08 + SC Paderborn 07 defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.22

SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.48 + Hansa Rostock defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Hansa Rostock scores more
31%
level
25%
SC Paderborn 07 scores more
44%

SC Paderborn 07 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "SC Paderborn 07 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Bundesliga: Hansa Rostock 0–3 SC Paderborn 07

SC Paderborn 07 beat Hansa Rostock 3-0 in 2. Bundesliga on October 8, 2022.

The match was played at Ostseestadion in Rostock.