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Hansa Rostock vs Hillerød — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Hansa Rostock
Hansa Rostock
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Hillerød
Hillerød
K. Schumacher 33'
N. Froling 19'
M. Lysholm 60'
1/11/2025Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Volksstadion Greifswald

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Hansa Rostock62%
×Draw19%
Hillerød19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hansa Rostock
2.46
Hillerød
1.30

Hansa Rostock creates 89% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Hansa Rostock
3.20
Hillerød
1.47

allows per match

Hansa Rostock
1.13
Hillerød
1.73

finishing

Hansa Rostock+0.00on par
Hillerød+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hansa Rostock ↓

Hillerød →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Hansa Rostock or draw
81%
Hansa Rostock or Hillerød
81%
Draw or Hillerød
38%

Winning margin

Hansa Rostock wins by 2+
41%
Hillerød wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Hansa Rostock 1+ goals
91%
Hansa Rostock 2+ goals
70%
Hansa Rostock 3+ goals
44%
Hillerød 1+ goals
73%
Hillerød 2+ goals
37%
Hillerød 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Hansa Rostock (draw refunded)
77%
Hillerød (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hansa Rostock at home — creates 3.20, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

Hillerød away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hansa Rostock attack 3.20 + Hillerød defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 2.46

Hillerød attack 1.47 + Hansa Rostock defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Hansa Rostock scores more
62%
level
19%
Hillerød scores more
19%

Hansa Rostock at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Hansa Rostock will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'
N. Froling
33'
K. Schumacher
60'
M. Lysholm
Hansa
Hillerød
Daniel Brinkmann
Manager: Daniel Brinkmann
Christian Lønstrup
Manager: Christian Lønstrup

Match Recap: Hansa Rostock vs Hillerød

Hansa Rostock beat Hillerød 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 11, 2025.

Goals: N. Froling (19'), K. Schumacher (33'), M. Lysholm (60').

The match was played at Volksstadion Greifswald in Greifswald.