Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Hansa Rostock vs FC Schalke 04 — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Hansa Rostock
Hansa Rostock
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
FC Schalke 04
FC Schalke 04
12/10/20232. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 16Ostseestadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Hansa Rostock33%
×Draw26%
FC Schalke 0442%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hansa Rostock
1.27
FC Schalke 04
1.46

FC Schalke 04 creates 15% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 68 away

creates per match

Hansa Rostock
1.08
FC Schalke 04
1.41

allows per match

Hansa Rostock
1.51
FC Schalke 04
1.47

finishing

Hansa Rostock+0.00on par
FC Schalke 04+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hansa Rostock ↓

FC Schalke 04 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Hansa Rostock or draw
58%
Hansa Rostock or FC Schalke 04
74%
Draw or FC Schalke 04
67%

Winning margin

Hansa Rostock wins by 2+
14%
FC Schalke 04 wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Hansa Rostock 1+ goals
72%
Hansa Rostock 2+ goals
36%
Hansa Rostock 3+ goals
14%
FC Schalke 04 1+ goals
77%
FC Schalke 04 2+ goals
43%
FC Schalke 04 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Hansa Rostock (draw refunded)
44%
FC Schalke 04 (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hansa Rostock at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.51 · 51 matches

FC Schalke 04 away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.47 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hansa Rostock attack 1.08 + FC Schalke 04 defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.27

FC Schalke 04 attack 1.41 + Hansa Rostock defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Hansa Rostock scores more
33%
level
26%
FC Schalke 04 scores more
42%

FC Schalke 04 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "FC Schalke 04 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Bundesliga: Hansa Rostock 0–2 FC Schalke 04

FC Schalke 04 beat Hansa Rostock 2-0 in 2. Bundesliga on December 10, 2023.

The match was played at Ostseestadion in Rostock.