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Hansa Rostock vs Borussia Dortmund II — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Hansa Rostock
Hansa Rostock
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Borussia Dortmund II
Borussia Dortmund II
1/6/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Bellis Hotel Sports Center - Field 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Hansa Rostock61%
×Draw18%
Borussia Dortmund II21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hansa Rostock
2.53
Borussia Dortmund II
1.43

Hansa Rostock creates 77% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 9 away

creates per match

Hansa Rostock
3.50
Borussia Dortmund II
1.56

allows per match

Hansa Rostock
1.30
Borussia Dortmund II
1.56

finishing

Hansa Rostock+0.00on par
Borussia Dortmund II+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hansa Rostock ↓

Borussia Dortmund II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Hansa Rostock or draw
79%
Hansa Rostock or Borussia Dortmund II
82%
Draw or Borussia Dortmund II
39%

Winning margin

Hansa Rostock wins by 2+
40%
Borussia Dortmund II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Hansa Rostock 1+ goals
92%
Hansa Rostock 2+ goals
71%
Hansa Rostock 3+ goals
46%
Borussia Dortmund II 1+ goals
76%
Borussia Dortmund II 2+ goals
42%
Borussia Dortmund II 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Hansa Rostock (draw refunded)
75%
Borussia Dortmund II (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hansa Rostock at home — creates 3.50, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

Borussia Dortmund II away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hansa Rostock attack 3.50 + Borussia Dortmund II defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 2.53

Borussia Dortmund II attack 1.56 + Hansa Rostock defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Hansa Rostock scores more
61%
level
18%
Borussia Dortmund II scores more
21%

Hansa Rostock at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Hansa Rostock will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hansa Rostock vs Borussia Dortmund II

Hansa Rostock beat Borussia Dortmund II 3-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 6, 2024.

The match was played at Bellis Hotel Sports Center - Field 1 in Belek.