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Hansa Rostock vs BFC Preussen — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Hansa Rostock
Hansa Rostock
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
BFC Preussen
BFC Preussen
E. Holten 63', 14'
F. Pfanne 11'
O. Adekunle 37'
1/10/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Hansa Rostock59%
×Draw19%
BFC Preussen22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hansa Rostock
2.38
BFC Preussen
1.40

Hansa Rostock creates 70% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 9 away

creates per match

Hansa Rostock
3.20
BFC Preussen
1.67

allows per match

Hansa Rostock
1.13
BFC Preussen
1.56

finishing

Hansa Rostock+0.00on par
BFC Preussen+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hansa Rostock ↓

BFC Preussen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Hansa Rostock or draw
78%
Hansa Rostock or BFC Preussen
81%
Draw or BFC Preussen
41%

Winning margin

Hansa Rostock wins by 2+
37%
BFC Preussen wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Hansa Rostock 1+ goals
91%
Hansa Rostock 2+ goals
68%
Hansa Rostock 3+ goals
42%
BFC Preussen 1+ goals
75%
BFC Preussen 2+ goals
41%
BFC Preussen 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Hansa Rostock (draw refunded)
73%
BFC Preussen (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hansa Rostock at home — creates 3.20, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

BFC Preussen away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hansa Rostock attack 3.20 + BFC Preussen defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 2.38

BFC Preussen attack 1.67 + Hansa Rostock defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Hansa Rostock scores more
59%
level
19%
BFC Preussen scores more
22%

Hansa Rostock at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Hansa Rostock will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
F. Pfanne
14'
E. Holten
37'
O. Adekunle
63'
E. Holten

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hansa Rostock vs BFC Preussen

Hansa Rostock beat BFC Preussen 3-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 10, 2026.

Goals: F. Pfanne (11'), E. Holten (14', 63'), O. Adekunle (37').