Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Hansa Rostock vs 1899 Hoffenheim — DFB Pokal 2018

Hansa Rostock
Hansa Rostock
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
1899 Hoffenheim
1899 Hoffenheim
M. Moerstedt 86', 71'
F. Asllani 83'
W. Burger 37'
8/16/2025DFB PokalDFB Pokal · 1st RoundOstseestadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Hansa Rostock16%
×Draw19%
1899 Hoffenheim65%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hansa Rostock
1.03
1899 Hoffenheim
2.25

1899 Hoffenheim creates 118% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 10 away

creates per match

Hansa Rostock
0.57
1899 Hoffenheim
2.20

allows per match

Hansa Rostock
2.29
1899 Hoffenheim
1.50

finishing

Hansa Rostock+0.00on par
1899 Hoffenheim+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hansa Rostock ↓

1899 Hoffenheim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–210%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Hansa Rostock or draw
35%
Hansa Rostock or 1899 Hoffenheim
81%
Draw or 1899 Hoffenheim
84%

Winning margin

Hansa Rostock wins by 2+
6%
1899 Hoffenheim wins by 2+
42%

Team goals

Hansa Rostock 1+ goals
64%
Hansa Rostock 2+ goals
28%
Hansa Rostock 3+ goals
9%
1899 Hoffenheim 1+ goals
89%
1899 Hoffenheim 2+ goals
65%
1899 Hoffenheim 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Hansa Rostock (draw refunded)
20%
1899 Hoffenheim (draw refunded)
80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hansa Rostock at home — creates 0.57, concedes 2.29 · 7 matches

1899 Hoffenheim away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hansa Rostock attack 0.57 + 1899 Hoffenheim defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.03

1899 Hoffenheim attack 2.20 + Hansa Rostock defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Hansa Rostock scores more
16%
level
19%
1899 Hoffenheim scores more
65%

1899 Hoffenheim at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "1899 Hoffenheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13
Bernardo1899 Hoffenheim1899 Hoffenheim · D
8.7

Match Events

22'
Koki Machida
37'
W. Burger↳ F. Asllani
60'
Viktor Bergh
62'
L. Wallner← F. Pfanne
62'
J. Dirkner← M. Schuster
66'
M. Moerstedt← T. Lemperle
71'
M. Moerstedt↳ A. Kramaric
74'
C. Kinsombi← B. Dietze
74'
A. Lebeau← J. Mejdr
79'
A. Prass← B. Toure
79'
M. Damar← A. Kramaric
83'
F. Asllani↳ W. Burger
86'
M. Moerstedt↳ M. Damar
87'
Arthur Chaves← R. Hranac
87'
U. Tohumcu← F. Asllani
89'
L. Reichardt← V. Bergh

Possession

37%Hansa

Shots

10Hansa

Pass accuracy

48%Hansa

Statistics

Hansa1899
Overview
37%Possession63%
10Total Shots13
6Corners5
10Fouls15
Shots
10Total Shots13
5On Target7
2Off Target4
3Blocked2
7Inside Box11
3Outside Box2
Passing
37%Possession63%
191Total Passes339
142Accurate Passes273
74%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
10Fouls15
1Yellow Cards1
0Offsides5

DFB Pokal: Hansa Rostock 0–4 1899 Hoffenheim

1899 Hoffenheim beat Hansa Rostock 4-0 in DFB Pokal on August 16, 2025.

Goals: W. Burger (37'), M. Moerstedt (71', 86'), F. Asllani (83').

1899 Hoffenheim controlled possession (63%) and registered 13 shots to 10.

The match was played at Ostseestadion in Rostock.