Hansa Rostock U19 6–1 Viktoria Berlin U19

Hansa Rostock U19

FT

6 – 1

HT: 4 – 1

Viktoria Berlin U19

P. Sanguinette 90', 80'

M. Hasse 44'

T. Bader 35', 32'

D. Kolano 4'

R. Lubert 41'

9/13/2025

U19 Bundesliga · Round 6Volksstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Hansa Rostock U1945%

×Draw20%

Viktoria Berlin U1935%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hansa Rostock U19Expected goals in this matchViktoria Berlin U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.27

1.98

Hansa Rostock U19

2.27

Viktoria Berlin U19

1.98

Hansa Rostock U19 creates 15% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 41 away

2.05

creates per match

1.59

2.36

allows per match

2.49

creates per match

Hansa Rostock U19

2.05

Viktoria Berlin U19

1.59

allows per match

Hansa Rostock U19

2.36

Viktoria Berlin U19

2.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hansa Rostock U19+0.00on par

Viktoria Berlin U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hansa Rostock U19 ↓

Viktoria Berlin U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

61%39%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

Hansa Rostock U19 or draw

65%

Hansa Rostock U19 or Viktoria Berlin U19

80%

Draw or Viktoria Berlin U19

55%

Winning margin

Hansa Rostock U19 wins by 2+

26%

Viktoria Berlin U19 wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Hansa Rostock U19 1+ goals

90%

Hansa Rostock U19 2+ goals

66%

Hansa Rostock U19 3+ goals

39%

Viktoria Berlin U19 1+ goals

86%

Viktoria Berlin U19 2+ goals

59%

Viktoria Berlin U19 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Hansa Rostock U19 (draw refunded)

57%

Viktoria Berlin U19 (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

71%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hansa Rostock U19 at home — creates 2.05, concedes 2.36 · 59 matches

Viktoria Berlin U19 away — creates 1.59, concedes 2.49 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hansa Rostock U19 attack 2.05 + Viktoria Berlin U19 defence 2.49 → ÷2 → 2.27

Viktoria Berlin U19 attack 1.59 + Hansa Rostock U19 defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Hansa Rostock U19 scores more

45%

level

20%

Viktoria Berlin U19 scores more

35%

Hansa Rostock U19 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Hansa Rostock U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

D. Kolano

32'

T. Bader

35'

T. Bader

41'

R. Lubert

44'

M. Hasse

80'

P. Sanguinette

90'

P. Sanguinette

Hansa

Viktoria

Manager: C. Rahn

Manager: H. Keskin