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Hansa Rostock U19 vs RB Leipzig U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Hansa Rostock U19
Hansa Rostock U19
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
RB Leipzig U19
RB Leipzig U19
8/24/2025U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Round 4Volksstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Hansa Rostock U1931%
×Draw20%
RB Leipzig U1948%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hansa Rostock U19
1.77
RB Leipzig U19
2.23

RB Leipzig U19 creates 26% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 70 away

creates per match

Hansa Rostock U19
2.05
RB Leipzig U19
2.10

allows per match

Hansa Rostock U19
2.36
RB Leipzig U19
1.50

finishing

Hansa Rostock U19+0.00on par
RB Leipzig U19+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hansa Rostock U19 ↓

RB Leipzig U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Hansa Rostock U19 or draw
52%
Hansa Rostock U19 or RB Leipzig U19
80%
Draw or RB Leipzig U19
69%

Winning margin

Hansa Rostock U19 wins by 2+
15%
RB Leipzig U19 wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Hansa Rostock U19 1+ goals
83%
Hansa Rostock U19 2+ goals
53%
Hansa Rostock U19 3+ goals
26%
RB Leipzig U19 1+ goals
89%
RB Leipzig U19 2+ goals
65%
RB Leipzig U19 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Hansa Rostock U19 (draw refunded)
39%
RB Leipzig U19 (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hansa Rostock U19 at home — creates 2.05, concedes 2.36 · 59 matches

RB Leipzig U19 away — creates 2.10, concedes 1.50 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hansa Rostock U19 attack 2.05 + RB Leipzig U19 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.77

RB Leipzig U19 attack 2.10 + Hansa Rostock U19 defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Hansa Rostock U19 scores more
31%
level
20%
RB Leipzig U19 scores more
48%

RB Leipzig U19 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "RB Leipzig U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hansa Rostock U19 vs RB Leipzig U19

RB Leipzig U19 beat Hansa Rostock U19 4-1 in U19 Bundesliga on August 24, 2025.

The match was played at Volksstadion in Rostock.